For this campaign staffer, the method was simple. First, they'd receive a tip on an unreleased poll and compare it with the odds on a prediction market, like PredictIt or Polymarket. If the poll reported their candidate had a better chance of winning than the prediction markets, they'd use this edge to buy low-cost odds on their candidate — known as event contracts — before the poll was released.

[...]

Once the poll went public, the prediction market contracts shot up in value. The staffer would then sell their contracts at a higher price and make money.

"The most I've ever made is thousands," the staffer said.

[...]

Le Riche said this sort of election betting by a campaign staffer potentially checks the boxes needed for a CFTC insider trading investigation: a breach of a duty to confidentiality, use of non-public material in a bet, and an understanding that the poll was insider information.