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My totally accurate model of what happened to Haiti
~historyhaitieconomicsremittances
kaytikal.substack.com 3 weeks ago

Summary

So, let’s sum up. What started in the 19th century as a continuous decline in agricultural productivity led Haitian labor to migrate to cities and foreign countries in large number while the country was still at a very low level of income per capita. The resulting remittances play a key humanitarian and macroeconomic stabilization role while weakening external competitiveness and fueling urbanization. Urbanization through slums and the institutional void left by the disbandment of the military has led to the collapse of the minimal security requirements for the economy to function normally. With that collapse, economic activity has crashed while demand fueled by remittances remains high resulting in high inflation while the currency is appreciating. The resulting loss of external competitiveness will further accelerate the trends towards a service-dominated economy, deeper urbanization, remittance dependency and further loss of external competitiveness. The trap now feeds itself.