China, once the largest buyer of American soybeans, has not purchased a single shipment since May, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture data. In 2024, China bought $12.5 billion of the $24.5 billion worth of soybeans the U.S. exported globally—more than 50 percent. For months now, the figure has been zero.

Soybeans account for 14 percent of all U.S. agricultural exports, making them the top food export by value. Farmers and trade officials say the loss of the Chinese market is not only destabilizing current revenues, but also threatening the long-term viability of American farms built to meet Chinese demand.

“We cannot replace a China in one shot,” said Iowa farmer Robb Ewoldt, a director with the United Soybean Board. “It’s not going to happen. We need to be realistic in that.”

Farmers are already facing storage shortages as corn and soybeans stack up with no clear buyer. “Each week, the Agriculture Department publishes a summary of the latest exports of American crops. Lately, they have all been missing the same thing: The sale of soybeans to China,” The New York Times reported last week. Overall U.S. soybean exports are down 23 percent year-over-year.

"Farmers are suffering terrible losses," Jennifer Fahy, co-executive director at Farm Aid, a nonprofit organization advocating for farmers, told Newsweek, adding that these are "not economic blips, but potentially long-term or permanently lost markets due to ricocheting tariffs."

"They [farmers] are telling us they're losing $100 to 200 an acre this year," she said.

China, meanwhile, has turned decisively toward South America. Chinese companies have secured 12 million metric tons of soybeans from Brazil and Argentina for delivery through October, entirely skipping U.S. suppliers during their primary marketing window.

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Many farmers remain skeptical of another bailout. While Trump has said tariff revenue could be returned to farmers “soon,” those same tariffs are already driving up the cost of essentials like fertilizer, pesticides, herbicides,and steel—raising prices on everything from crop inputs to machinery.