Other countries haven’t seen this increase in pedestrian deaths: in every other high-income country, rates are flat or declining. Whatever’s causing the problem seems to be limited to the US.

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Looking at the data, the strongest evidence seems to be for the “big SUV” hypothesis: the fatality rate for pedestrian accidents has increased dramatically across a variety of states, pointing to “pedestrian accidents becoming more deadly” as a major cause of the increase. But the case for it isn’t open and shut, as pedestrian deaths involving sedans and compacts have also increased. And while there isn’t much evidence for the “distracted by phones” hypothesis, it’s also hard to rule it out completely.

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If we look at pedestrian deaths per capita, we see that deaths are much more frequent in the West and the South, and less frequent in the Northeast and the Midwest. This does not appear to be due to larger amounts of driving in the South and the West. There’s little correlation between the number of vehicle miles traveled and the pedestrian death rate.

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If we look at the change in pedestrian deaths over time, we can see that the rise in pedestrian deaths is worse in the South, but besides a handful of states (Minnesota, Rhode Island, New York, West Virginia, New Jersey, and Vermont), every state has seen substantial increases in pedestrian deaths. Whatever’s causing the increase in US pedestrian deaths is happening across the country.

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The increase in fatalities is essentially entirely on urban roads — deaths on rural roads are flat. On most categories of urban road, pedestrian fatalities have doubled. Whatever is causing the increase in pedestrian deaths, it’s only happening in urban areas.

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Most pedestrian deaths occur at night, but the rate hasn’t changed much (the fraction of deaths between 6pm and 6am is up slightly from 69% in 2009 to 75% in 2023). Whatever’s causing the increase in pedestrian deaths doesn’t seem specific to one time of day.

Nor is it specific to one time of week. Deaths have become somewhat less likely to occur on Friday and Saturday, and somewhat more likely to occur during the week, but the shift isn’t dramatic.

It’s also not specific to one time of year. The graph below shows pedestrian fatality frequency by month. Pedestrian deaths are more likely to occur in the fall and winter (presumably because there are fewer daylight hours and more driving in darkness), but monthly rates haven’t changed at all.

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Deaths of children under 10 are actually down significantly (167 deaths in 2009 to 98 deaths in 2023), and deaths for ages 10-19 are down as well. The biggest increase in deaths actually comes from older age brackets: 30-39 year old deaths are up 153%, 60-69 year olds up 167%, and 70-79 year olds up 119%. So the problem isn’t young kids increasingly getting hit by cars that can’t see them.

What about the age of drivers?

Deaths are up in every driver age bracket, with older brackets (30-39, 60-69 and 70-79) up the most in percentage terms. So the problem isn’t reckless young drivers.

Interestingly, driver drug and alcohol use in pedestrian fatalities is greatly exceeded by pedestrian alcohol and drug use. (Pedestrian drug use in particular has more than tripled since 2009, while alcohol use is only up modestly.) It’s not enough to explain all of the huge increase in pedestrian deaths, but it’s notable.

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Pedestrian accidents getting more deadly seems like fairly strong evidence for the theory that the rise in large SUVs is behind the uptick in pedestrian deaths: it’s not that more pedestrians are getting hit by vehicles, it’s that the ones that are getting hit are more likely to die. There’s other evidence that points to this theory. A study by the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety analyzed 17,897 pedestrian accidents across seven states, and found pedestrians were substantially more likely to be killed when struck by tall vehicles and vehicles with blunt front ends.

However, there’s also some muddying evidence here. If the increase of size and frequency of trucks and SUVs was behind the increase in pedestrian deaths, we wouldn’t expect to see an increase in the frequency of pedestrians killed by sedans or compact cars. However, if we look at pedestrian deaths by model of car, we see that pedestrian deaths involving popular sedans have increased as well. Pedestrian deaths involving Honda Civics and Accords, Toyota Corollas and Camrys, and Nissan Altimas have all increased substantially.