So far, GiveDirectly and Canva have delivered cash equivalent to $550 to every adult in the Khongoni subdistrict of Malawi, reaching over 85k people.

Our last phase tested what happens when large cash transfers are delivered widely, quickly, and without conditions.

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Our large scale cash injection was equivalent to doubling the economy in Khongoni. Compared to surrounding areas, inflation in Khongoni rose by about 1% – a statistically detectable but economically negligible effect. After five months, this had fallen to zero.

Markets were able to absorb large-scale transfers without driving significant price inflation. That gives us strong evidence that this model can be scaled responsibly and rapidly without triggering harmful inflation.

This stability was a product of how recipients and markets responded:

• Recipients didn’t spend all at once: Findings showed households did not spend all of the transfer immediately and gradually increased their spending over months.
• They also shopped around: Recipients had access to multiple markets, locally and in nearby Lilongwe city, allowing them to choose between sellers if someone didn’t have what they needed or tried to raise prices.
• Vendors chose not to raise prices: Traders reported keeping prices steady to maintain trust, saying opportunistic hikes would damage their reputation once the cash was gone.
• Markets adapted to demand: Many vendors simply ordered more stock and new traders entered markets, both without significantly driving up prices.

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This year, GiveDirectly and Canva launched the next phase of our work in Malawi: delivering $550 at districtwide scale, starting in Chiradzulu and aiming to reach ~185k people by early 2027.