Financial information from NASA suggests the agency’s payments for launch services are increasing, according to a paper authored by Moon Kim, a research analyst for NASA’s strategic investments division. The report is set to be published in the July issue of Acta Astronautica, a peer-reviewed journal sponsored by the International Academy of Astronautics.

Adjusted for inflation, the prices NASA pays for launch services rose at an annual average rate of 2.82 percent from 1996 to 2024, the report says. “Furthermore, there is no evidence of shift in the launch service costs trend after the introduction of a new launch service provider [SpaceX] in 2016.”

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Over the last few years, SpaceX cited inflation as the reason for steadily increasing the price of a dedicated Falcon 9 launch, from $62 million, to $67 million, and now to $70 million. This suggests SpaceX is selling launches at a significant markup, although the Falcon 9’s list price still undercuts the company’s competitors.

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Companies charge the US government more for launch services than they do for commercial customers. By paying more, NASA and the Space Force get priority on launch schedules, and government engineers have access to internal company data for oversight purposes. NASA and Space Force missions sometimes have special requirements, such as strict payload cleanliness specifications or augmentations to place satellites into unique orbits, meaning they often can’t launch on rideshare missions, which offer cut-rate prices for missions that can fly on them.

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NASA is paying SpaceX less to launch its newest missions than the agency would have paid ULA to launch them on Delta II or Atlas V rockets a decade ago. That’s the good news. However, despite its mastery of rocket reuse, SpaceX is charging NASA nearly as much for future Falcon 9 launches (an average of $103 million) as it did over the last decade (an average of $107 million).

And the latest average Falcon 9 prices for NASA are higher than those of the expendable Delta II rocket more than 20 years ago.

Meanwhile, ULA hasn’t launched a NASA science mission since 2022, and hasn’t won a contract with NASA’s Launch Services Program since 2019. ULA’s Atlas V rocket is nearing retirement, and the company’s replacement, the Vulcan, only became eligible to compete for NASA launch contracts last year.