Summary
From the article, a month ago:
Ground beef prices hit a record high of $6.32 a pound in August, and beef prices were up 13.9% year-over-year according to the consumer price index, far outstripping overall inflation rise of 2.9%.
Meanwhile, a culmination of years of low prices, rising costs to raise cattle, and years-long droughts that dried up grazing pasture caused cattle ranchers to slash their beef herds to the lowest level since 1951. As a result, CME Group live cattle futures prices recently rose to a high of $243.58 per hundredweight. (A hundredweight is equivalent to 100lbs.)
There are several reasons for ranchers’ hesitancy, says David Anderson, livestock specialist at Texas A&M University. The last time cattle prices set a record in 2014, ranchers quickly bred more bovines, only to see prices collapse. Now he estimates cattle ranchers are making well-over $500 per head selling cattle and so far show little incentive to expand their herds.
After several years of losing money, ranchers are grateful for the higher returns but many are gun shy to rebuild.
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Beef production has dipped further recently because the US closed the Mexican border to cattle imports to prevent the spread of New World screwworm, a species of flesh-eating fly larvae. With domestic supplies tight, it has a ripple effect on the national beef price, he says.
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Last year the US imported 16% of its beef needs, and tariffs will make your next burger more costly. Fifty percent of US beef consumption is ground beef, and Brazil is the biggest supplier of beef trimmings. The additional 50% tariff on Brazil imports means the total tax on those beef imports is 76.4%.
That tariff was just repealed.
So far there’s little sign of Americans eating less beef despite the high prices, but that’s the biggest worry, since beef prices have increased much more than pork or chicken. That’s what worries producers like Kenzy and Perez.