From the article:

Despite tentative signs that the West is reacting to try and frustrate Russia’s workarounds, the authorities in Greece argue they are powerless to prevent these clandestine shipping activities taking place just off the nation’s coast. They happen in international waters that begin six miles from its shoreline in the Laconian Gulf, the stretch of water where the Turba and Simba came together.

Spain, another EU member state, was able to stamp out similar activity earlier this year, leaving Greece — the world's single largest oil tanker-owning nation — as a crucial outlier. Operating under the price cap, Greek-owned vessels handled more of Moscow’s oil this year than rivals from any other individual country except Russia itself.

The Greek owners were able to stay in the trade — without breaking EU rules — after the country’s diplomats successfully lobbied other member states to water down measures that would have otherwise restricted the shippers’ ability to trade with Russia. Greek vessels have carried 20% of all Russia’s oil shipments so far in 2023 and almost a third of its exports of the flagship grade Urals crude, according to shipping data.

How long that will continue is uncertain. The International Maritime Organization, the watchdog that oversees shipping, said on Wednesday that the illegal activities of the shadow fleet of oil tankers present a “grave concern” for environmental safety, and called for a global clampdown. It asked member states to promote actions to prevent illegal operations in the maritime sector by the shadow fleet. Without mentioning Russia by name, the IMO noted that the ships “pose a real and high risk of incident, particularly when engaging in ship-to-ship transfers.”

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Official Indian customs data show that the price paid for Russian oil averaged $72 a barrel this year by the time it reached the Asian country. That is $12 higher than prices declared at the point of export in Russia, according to data compiled by the KSE Institute, part of the Kyiv School of Economics and a supporter of tough sanctions on Moscow. Argus Media data, used to inform G-7 policy, show a similar gap since March. Given that Russia has exported close to 3.5 million barrels of oil a day this year, it means that about $11 billion is going into what might be called a delivery spread. Some of that will represent legitimate shipping costs, but almost all of it goes through anonymous traders or unknown shipping companies.

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This has not gone unnoticed. Since Oct. 12 the US Treasury has sanctioned eight oil tankers for breaching the price cap, six were owned by Russia’s Sovcomflot, the state-backed oil tanker company. US authorities have also written to operators of about 100 ships asking for information about potential price-cap violations. The EU is exploring the introduction of a notification system that would require its authorization to sell or export tankers and second-hand carriers. That could make it harder for member states such as Greece to sell tankers into the shadow fleet. The UK has also sanctioned a Dubai-based oil trader over its opaque ownership structure.

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The ultimate question is whether the US and its allies really want to curtail Russian oil flows, something that would potentially drive up global fuel prices — in an election year for Biden. If they don’t, and that’s the belief among many oil traders and analysts, then Moscow has workarounds it can employ: from its shadow fleet to encouraging Western service providers to turn a blind eye to potentially false attestations from traders about the price at which they are buying oil.