Summary
From the article:
Following reported strikes on Yandex data centers, claims circulated on the Internet that Russian bot farms and influence operations had been knocked offline. HTTP traffic charts showed steep drops, fueling speculation that the infrastructure damage had stopped these malicious actors. However, aggregate traffic metrics can easily mislead. There are two autonomous system numbers (ASNs) associated with Yandex: AS13238 is used by Yandex’s search engine, while AS200350 runs its cloud services.
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The decline on Yandex Search ASN was almost entirely search crawling. Sampled requests showed that 78.1% belonged to verified YandexBot, 11.5% to YandexRenderResourcesBot, and 1.9% to YandexImages.
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Yandex.Cloud displayed a completely different profile. Following the reported strikes, bot traffic from Yandex.Cloud fell about 40%. Several attack-like categories showed especially sharp declines. For example, WordPress plugin probing fell 90% and scanner-identified requests fell 93%. Interestingly (and tellingly), Cloudflare customer blocks on Yandex.Cloud traffic also fell 70% during the event period, suggesting that proportionately less malicious traffic was even hitting the Cloudflare WAF from this ASN.
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The majority of traffic from the Yandex.Cloud ASN fell into two industry buckets: computer software and gambling. The computer software bucket was predictable for an ASN meant to host third-party applications and software integrations. In fact, we even saw that api.cloudflare.com is a top hostname for Yandex.Cloud request traffic. An overall majority of that traffic succeeded (requests returned 200s) both before and during the event, pointing to legitimate usage.
The gambling sector offers the clearest evidence that malicious automation relocated rather than disappeared. Nearly all of Yandex.Cloud’s bot requests were targeted at one gambling customer account, with traffic shifting among its hostnames. Immediately following the October 8 disruption, bot requests from Yandex.Cloud to this account dropped to zero. Simultaneously, identical requests began appearing from other Russian hosting ASNs, including Radist and Selectel. The incoming traffic maintained an identical fingerprint across providers:
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Overall, Russian bot traffic targeting gambling accounts remained essentially flat over the week, moving from 167.7 million to 170.1 million requests (+1.4%). The automation never stopped running; the operators simply migrated their workloads to alternate cloud providers once Yandex.Cloud became unavailable.
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Finally, when we analyzed social media traffic, we found no unexpected changes in traffic either from Russian-origin IPs (0.6% decrease in total traffic over the event period) or globally (1.2% increase in total traffic over the event period). We repeated the analysis on bot traffic hitting the “post”, “reply”, and “like” endpoints for a specific social media platform and similarly did not find an unexpected shift before or during the event period from either Russian-origin IPs (5.7% decrease in total traffic over the event period) or globally (1.1% increase in total traffic over the event period). Based on our assessment, the data does not appear to support the claims that the strikes crippled social media manipulation, though without further analysis with data outside of Cloudflare, we cannot conclusively say there is no connection.
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Our analysis here is a reminder that client ASN traffic volume is an unreliable proxy for interpreting automated bot behavior. Defending against automated threats requires inspecting request behavior, such as identifying shared JA4 fingerprints, monitoring anomalous request rates, and applying WAF rules to sensitive endpoints, regardless of which network the request originates from. Physical infrastructure is static, but malicious automation is built to move.