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Here’s what the oft-cited R0 number tells us about the new outbreak—and what it doesn’t
~healthauthor.ed yongcovid19coronavirusesdiseasesepidemiology
www.theatlantic.com Jan 29, 2020Tildes

Summary

From the article:

R0 is important because if it’s greater than 1, the infection will probably keep spreading, and if it’s less than 1, the outbreak will likely peter out.

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[T]he R0 estimates for the new coronavirus are in line with those for many other diseases.

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[A] bigger R0 doesn’t necessarily mean a worse disease.

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R0 is an average. Let’s say the virus has an R0 of 2. This could mean that every single infected person passes the virus to two other people. It could also mean that one infected person is a “super-spreader” who infects 100 people, while 49 infected people infect no one. These two scenarios have radically different implications for what will happen during an outbreak.

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The current R0 estimates for the new coronavirus are specific to Wuhan, and mostly to the era before people knew about the virus.